Breaking Down The Tigers - Part 4 of 5

Analyzing starting pitching can sometimes be easier than analyzing a bullpen. There are more “positions” to setup in the pen, and sometimes it takes a certain mentality of a pitcher in certain situations.

The Tigers have struggled to find the right mix of players in recent years. Up until 2001, they had a strong bullpen that was fueled by setup man Doug Brocail and closer Todd Jones. Since then, we’ve seen three closers, and a fourth coming this season.

Let’s break down the bullpen and try to make some sense of it, and start with two guys fighting for the fifth starting rotation spot.

Wilfredo Ledezma. Last season Ledezma ripped up the minors so well he was rewarded with a starting spot in the rotation for the last few weeks of the season. Ledezma started out 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA, and ended 4-3 with a 4.39 ERA. Not a bad start for a guy called up mid-season. He commands a strong fastball in the 92-95 MPH range, as well as an above average changeup, and is working on improving his breaking ball, which has been described several times a slur, or smooth. Ledezma has the design of a Major League Pitcher. We haven’t had a chance to see how deep he can go into a game, but the Tigers’ coaching staff sticks strongly to pitch counts, so I would count on Ledezma for 100 pitches per game – That is, if chosen for the rotation. Otherwise, I’d look to Ledezma for long relief, and extra inning work. Ledezma needs to continue working on his breaking ball, and get himself conditioned for the future. He also needs to better learn the smarts of striking out a Major League batter. At the latest, he will probably enter the starting rotation by 2006, and needs to prepare for longer innings now.

Gary Knotts. Gary Knotts had a bad two month start, and a bad July. Putting those aside he had an ERA in the mid-threes, and gave up little homeruns the entire season. He has three average pitches, including a 92-93 MPH fastball, a curveball with good movement, and a decent changeup. At 7-6 with a 5.25 ERA, Knotts will have to fight off Ledezma for his spot in the rotation. The key to Knotts is his fastball. When his fastball is on, he can often keep batters off-balance when he mixes in his curveball and changeup. Knotts will need to work on consistency in his pitching if he wants to return to the rotation. Detroit has been losing for a decade, and will want to get off to the best start it can. Having someone in the rotation with an 8.74 ERA for the first month just won’t happen. I would suggest he talk to Bob Cluck about his fastball location drill, which includes putting white tape on the catcher’s glove, and the Pitcher throwing at the white tape. The Psychology behind these types of drills is simple. With repetition, you will condition yourself to a certain pattern, and you will develop a natural behavior. In other words, he’ll get his arm use to putting the ball where he wants it consistently, and make it tough for Trammell to exclude him in the rotation. If he doesn’t make it, look to him for long relief.

Jamie Walker. Put him against Lefties, and he’s effective. Take him out of that element, and you have someone that struggles. Walker holds left handed batters to a lowly .200 batting average, and allows for right handed batters to hit .313. Walker is a good middle reliever in situations that call for someone to get a left handed batter out. Walker is a tough case because of this. His 3.20 ERA looks good, but his 3-4 record does not. He only throws in the upper 80s using a fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. He does good handling the field, but his runners are 14-14 in steal attempts. With the arrival of Ledezma and Percival, I would look to Walker’s innings to decrease, and he be used as a situational pitcher. Unless he works out his problems against right handed batters, I wouldn’t expect to see him against many. This should be Walker’s focus in Spring Training.

Franklyn German. Wasn’t German supposed to be the closer by now? German doesn’t have the mental toughness to close. At best, he’s better for setup positions, or one or two innings of work when needed. His 7.36 ERA was actually an improvement as the season went on. His fastball is quick – mid-90s – but lacks movement, and is often up in the zone waiting to be picked. He has a nice split-finger pitch, but doesn’t execute it well. If German wants to see any kind of real mound time, he’s going to have to work on his fastball, and work on mixing in more pitches. I would look to German to be used against lesser hitting teams, and on nights where others need rest.

Steve Colyer. Like Walker, Colyer is strong against lefties, weak against righties. He would be best used in situational pitching only, which poses a question. Do we need two guys like this? Colyer is one of the guys talked about as an up-coming pitcher. He’s got hype behind him, but little to back it up. His 6.47 ERA is an improvement over his start, but still not bold enough to command any real time on the mound. Colyer could use another year in the minors. I think he could someday make a good reliever, but for now, he’s just not ready, and the Walker is the better option. Colyer will get a chance in Spring Training. Expect him Toledo on opening day.

Ugueth Urbina. Last year’s closer is this year’s setup man, that is, if he isn’t traded. Urbina saved 21 games last year, and won four others. He also blew six games, which is nothing new to Urbina. Urbina is an average closer, which is why he’s being replaced. In the setup position, Urbina should be able to give one or two innings, and if he happens to give up some runs, his team will have time to come back. He has an 88-90 MPH fastball that he likes to use to setup his slider and changeup, both of which he uses very well. His greatest strength is his ability to strike guys out. In 54 innings, Urbina struck out 56 batters. Urbina’s one area of work should be the number of walks he gives up. If he can lower the number of walks, he should be able to get out of more innings without trouble. Let’s hope the Tigers don’t trade this guy, and we have a good setup man.

Troy Percival. Aside from being the guy I thought should have been MVP of the 2002 World Series, Troy Percival brings us an average of 35-40 saves per year. His ERA is low – 2.90 last season – and he strikes out a fair amount of guys. What sets him apart from Urbina is the number of walks that he gives up. Percival is coming off a season in which we saw his strikeouts decline, but I wouldn’t get alarmed over it. Percival still pitches in the 92-94 MPH range, and has a good changeup and curveball. He pitches intelligently, and knows how to get out of an inning. Percival’s biggest adjustment will be his new team. Pitcher-friendly Comerica Park will help him out, but he has to learn not to rely on it. If he does, it could affect his pitching on the road.

Other honorable mentions should be Roberto Novoa, and Colby Lewis. I don’t see them on the Tigers roster after the Spring.

The bullpen has tools to work with. They could use one more quality middle reliever, but most likely won’t acquire one anytime soon. With guys like Knotts and Ledezma in the mix, they could be ok. Walker could give them a nice option against lefties, and the Urbina/Percival late inning combo should serve the Tigers well.

Spring Training will be key for the bullpen. It will tell a lot, and weed itself out. Tomorrow we’ll talk about some of the guys that won’t make it past Spring Training, and guys we could see in the future.