Monday, January 10, 2005

Breaking Down The Tigers - Part 1 of 5

The Detroit Tigers appear to be out of the race for Derek Lowe. Lowe, reportedly, is near a four year, $36 million deal with the Dodgers.

The Tigers haven’t had much luck signing guys this year. They started off well with Troy Percival, but went on to be snubbed by Pavano, Drew, Beltre, and others.

It was reported that Lowe wanted a four year, $48 million deal from the Tigers. Although he had a good post-season, his ERA, 5.42, was too high to command that kind of money. The Tigers passed.

So rather than looking at a gloomy picture, I’ve decided to spend the week breaking down the Tigers. I will piece it out into five parts -- Infielders, Outfielders, Starting Pitchers, Relief Pitchers, and Prospects and the future.

Let’s start with the Infield.

First Base. Carlos Pena signed a one year contract on Friday to remain with the Tigers. Pena adds strong fielding (.995 fielding percentage), and a homerun threat at the place. The downside of Pena is his inconsistency at the plate. Pena is a career .244 hitter who has never hit better than .248, with an on base percentage of only .331. It seems to me that he is always swinging for the fence, and strikes out, flies out, or homers. There are times when Pena looks as if he’s finally coming around, and then he goes back into his hitting slump, reminding us why he might not be the long term answer at first base. Keys for Pena this season will be increasing his batting average, and raising his on base percentage. If he stops trying to hit a homerun every time he’s at bat, these two areas could be self-corrected. Only giving someone who has been touted as the best first base prospect in the American League a one year contract speaks volumes. Get better, or we’ll have to replace you.

Second Base. It appears Fernando Vina could be done. Vina, battling a knee injury, is expected to start the season on the 60 day disabled list. He spent 75% of last season on the disabled list, and he’s not getting any younger. To add to it all, his last season with St Louis was plagued with injuries. To fill the gap, the Tigers called on Omar Infante, and will do the same again this year. Infante did decent behind the plate. He had an average of .264 with 16 homeruns, and 55 RBIs. In the field, he had a field percentage of .976, and 12 errors. Infante can easily keep the job at second base by trimming down his errors, and raising his on base percentage. Out of 503 at bats, Infante struck out 112 times, and only walked 40. A good spring training and starting the season playing should be a factor in achieving this. He’ll be able to work on what he needs, and then enter the season with the momentum he’ll get from spring training. With other problems in the outfield and pitching, second base hasn’t been an area that the Tigers have tried to put a new player at. This is Infante’s chance to cement himself into the roster.

Short Stop. Carlos Guillen is the real deal. Since 2000, his numbers have improved every year, with last year being his break-out season with a .318 batting average, and 97 RBIs in only 136 games. His fielding needs a little bit of polishing. Guillen had 17 errors that held his fielding percentage down to a .974. Although not making excuses, or justifying the high error count, Guillen does have a history of errors. He had a career high 21 when he was with Seattle, and hasn’t really improved since. His goal with the Tigers when camp opens should be improving his fielding. Alan Trammell, former short stop for the Tigers, will most likely try and work with Guillen in this area.

Third Base. Who says catchers can’t be converted to base positions? Brandon Inge did so last year, and did well. Whatever happened to him in his minor league assignment in September 2003 worked well for the season of 2004. Inge hit .287 with 64 RBIs and 13 homeruns. Before that he was hitting right around .200 each season. There is still some skepticism, but with a year of third base under his belt, Inge could turn out to be a viable option at the position. He had fewer errors than Guillen and Infante, with a fielding percentage of .935 in 73 games. He will only improve on these numbers from this point. He needs to work on his reaction to quick hits, and make sure he’s in front of the ball at all times. He doesn’t appear afraid to go after balls. Knocking the ball down can sometimes be as effective as getting it in the glove. He has the arm strength and accuracy to reach first base without problems, now he just has to make sure he’s keeping the ball in play. While not forgetting to keep his hitting up to the levels of last season, he now needs to put most of his focus on his fielding.

Catcher. Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez enters his second season as a Tiger. Pudge, who was in contention for the batting title most of last summer, finished the year batting .334 with 19 homeruns and 86 RBIs. Pudge ran into some trouble with his hip flexor muscles, and often appeared uncomfortable behind the plate. He toughed it out, but was ineffective throwing runners out at second base. A healthy hip flexor will help Pudge next season, and we should see his caught stealing percentage go back up to the 40-50 percent mark. Being a seasoned veteran with a World Series on his resume, Pudge is a proven leader on the field, and at the plate. He’s proven he can carry a team from the NLCS to the World Series, and he’s shown he can carry another team from a 43 win season to a 72 win season. Pudge will finish his next three years without injury, or problems with his back. He will consistently hit over .300, and will lead the Tigers to a Central Division title at least once. With someone of Pudge’s level, there isn’t one thing to work on for improvement. Instead, Pudge must come to Spring Training, get ready for the season, and give it all he can.

Overall I’m pretty happy with the infield. I never considered them the problem with this team, even with Pena’s hitting woes, and the loss of Vina. I would consider this infield good enough to win a division, and maybe even a round in the playoffs. If, during the season, Pena isn’t hitting well, I could see the Tigers using him in a trade. That is, if they have solved some of their other problems.

Tomorrow we’ll discuss the outfield, and try and make some sense of the mess.

Stats provided by ESPN

6 Comments:

At 12:00 PM, Blogger the sports dude said...

If you are breaking it down 1 to 5, I will comment on it 1 to 5. So here we go, comment #1.

I like the infield for next year, I really do. I think that Pena will have a break out year next season, finally putting a good average with those power numbers. I am guessing that he will hit .280 - maybe a little bold prediction, but I will say it anyway. For the record, .280 with 30 homers and 80-90 RBI for a first basemen, I'll take it!

Second base - Omar Infante will continue to grow and I think he will improve on his #'s from last year. He is young, I like him, and I don't think Vina will be missed, let alone needed.

Short stop - don't even have to go there! Guillen is young, will stay steady with his #'s and the fact that he is wanted is all he needs to continue to perform. Thanks Seattle for wanting Rich Aurilla last off season - can you say bust? True team guy that was even willing to change positions if we asked.

Third base - I like Inge and I think given the chance and a full season to concentrate mostly on one position will excel and build on last year. He was a shortstop in college, whom the Tigers converted to catcher. That is why I think he looked comfortable and why I think he will continue to succeed.

Catcher - Pudge, enough said.

The novel is over, sorry for the long comment. Thanks for the linkage - the sports dude!

 
At 1:01 PM, Blogger Dan Joseph said...

No need to apologize for long posts, I welcome them.

I hope you are right about Pena. It would be a crying shame if he didn't pan out. That's one position the Tigers had some prospects, but now seemed to have traded them all away, or didn't re-sign. Now with Munson gone, there's really only Dmitri Young, but he's getting along in age, and isn't an answer for a real long term. It would almost set them back to square one if Pena didn't pan out.

 
At 1:10 PM, Blogger the sports dude said...

I agree there as well! They did let Munson go and Dmitri Young, at best, would be a short term answer because of his age. They could always just try Inge at first, he is a super sub right? Joking there, for the record! But the infield is young and talented ( so it seems ) and I hope Pena does pan out, and I think he will.

I agree the outfield is a mess and look forward to your take on it so I can share mine. It may be messy this season, but I think the following year (2006) looks a lot better. Higgy will be off the books and the one year experiment with Sanchez in 2005 will be over. I think the 2006 outfield will be more promising, but I will say until I read your take. The sports dude.

 
At 2:43 PM, Blogger Dan Joseph said...

Do you remember the guy named Dusty? I can't remember his last name anymore. He played for 'em the first year at Comerica Park I believe. He was a minor leaguer, got called up, hit like a monster. I don't know what ever happened to him though. After they got Pena, he disappeared.

 
At 3:10 PM, Blogger the sports dude said...

Are you talking about Dusty Allen? No, I am not a stat geek, I googled the 2000 tigers roster, looked for it and found this link, hopefully it will work in a comment:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=allendu01

that is the only dusty I saw on their roster, and his numbers do look pretty decent. Where he is now, however, that is beyond me.

 
At 3:17 PM, Blogger Dan Joseph said...

Yeah! That's him! In 18 games, .438, 2 Homeruns, 2 RBIs, but 7 Ks in 16 at bats. He was an energetic player, I loved him! I thought for sure he'd have a 2001 spring training invitation, but didn't. I had heard he was back down in Erie in 2001. Strange, I guess that just proves how competitive it really is at the MLB level.

Also, by now he'd be almost 33. He was drafted in the 30th round in 1995 by San Diego. I bet what we saw was Dusty's last stand, and he's done playing now.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home